This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!
The PGA Tour offers another elevated event at Bay Hill this weekend for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The best players in the world will tee it up on one of the most daunting courses of the season. With a pile of money on the line, should we expect another favorite to come away with a big win? Will we finally have a player from down the odds board make a run at a big victory? Start with our golf betting preview for this event prior to reading ahead for this week’s betting card.
At the time of this writing – February 28th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 45/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (2/27) |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +650 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +900 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Max Homa | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Tony Finau | +2200 |
| Will Zalatoris | +2200 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 |
| Jason Day | +3300 |
| Sungjae Im | +3300 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3300 |
| Cameron Young | +3300 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| Sam Burns | +4000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 |
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
In the betting preview, I mentioned that Morikawa seems to be trending in the proper direction with his recent finishes. With three top ten finishes in his last four events, Morikawa has has contended in the bigger fields. While not exceptionally long, Collin offers some of the key ingredients I am looking for this week.
Morikawa rates in the top ten in approach, fairways, and proximity over 200 yards. His long irons are a strong suit and will be necessary this weekend. We are not in love with his short game, around and on the green, but we aren’t betting his outright assuming he is going to grind. We are betting his outright hoping his approach game is second-to-none.
I am very happy to wager a unit on Morikawa on FanDuel this week hoping for his first win of the season. Morikawa is also in strong consideration for one-and-done pools because he won’t likely garner that much ownership in a loaded field.
So, as mentioned in the preview, this is not a recent form play. Matthew Fitzpatrick is a track record play. His last four appearances at Bay Hill have reaped rewards with four top ten finishes.
When I see a windy weather report, my own bias immediately draws my eyes to Fitzpatrick’s spot on the odds board. I must not be the only one as his initial 40/1 has been bet down to 35/1 across most betting sites. His long irons are excellent and he avoids bogeys in tough conditions. If we are wagering on Fitzpatrick we probably want the weather to get very, very ugly. We will spend 0.6 units on his DraftKings offering.
For one-and-done, I think Fitzpatrick is a very interesting play if you are way, way, way behind everyone. You need a win and you need it to come from someone that nobody else has picked for the week. Since I fill those shoes, I will be considering using Fitzpatrick in my larger OAD pools.
Hello, old friend. We can no longer avoid you. I have avoided Cameron Young this season in his events but he has been elevated to a price that I would be upset about missing out on.
Long off the tee, solid on and around the greens, Young is bound to win at a prolific rate on tour. While horrible weather conditions might not suit him, if we avoid some weather Young is explosive enough to hang a number. I would check what wave Young plays on to see if we can’t get him off the course before the worst of the weather comes along.
In any event, he will cost us 0.6 units. He will come through for us one day.
Anybody in for a cheeky international player on a course that will likely require a lot of creativity. If the weather report holds true, the weather could be a pretty big factor this weekend. We will need to take a look at the draw for players as the forecast matures. However, I don’t mind a small wager on a player with plenty of wind experience at a course where he is comfortable. Fleetwood is 5 of 6 with made cuts and every finish is inside the top 30.
For this price, we don’t mind adding Tommy for breadcrumbs but will certainly consider him as a cheaper option for DFS. Here we will wager 0.3 units and hope for the best.
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | +2100 | 1 | 21 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3500 | 0.6 | 21 |
| Cameron Young | +4000 | 0.5 | 20 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +7500 | 0.3 | 22.5 |
API Total Units in Play – 2.4
2023 Net Units: -14.65
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.
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