For the third time in four weeks, all of the PGA TOUR’s best have assembled for an elevated event, this time in Orlando for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Let’s get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards.
Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. This tournament has bred few surprises at the top of the leaderboard by Sunday. Bay Hill presents a long and stern test from tee to green. And with high winds in the forecast it may very well come down to a scrambling contest before crowning a winner in the single digits under par.
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Standing just under 7,500 yards, Bay Hill presents similar challenges we come to expect in a major championship venue. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. That makes Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance of premium importance. The list of top performers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational reads like a list of major champions and annual major contenders. So, it’s a week in which players will need to enter in polished tee-to-green form in order to contend.
Wind proved a decisive factor in the 2022 outcome of the Arnold Palmer and should be monitored closely ahead of tee off on Thursday. For now, we’ll assume equal playing conditions for the full field when determining top value plays until more information becomes available on tee times and Thursday/Friday weather reports.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have combined to win each of the first three elevated events of 2023. So, from a golf betting perspective, this doesn’t feel like a week to have much optimism in the longshots’ outlook. That said, the presence of these elites has pushed quality players to a discounted odds range, creating some appealing value if any of the elites falter.
In terms of DFS, this has proven to be a sticky week for course history. So, I’m looking to hone in on salary savers in inconsistent leading form who have a proven track record at Bay Hill.
Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Keegan Bradley a sleeper no more? He broke a winless drought earlier this season at the ZOZO Championship and followed that up with three top-20 finishes over his next six starts leading up to this week. Even still, you can find him beyond 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field, and at the discounted DraftKings price of $7,600. It’s still safe to say he enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational as a longshot, albeit one with great potential.
At Bay Hill, course history has proven more repeatable than just about any other course on the PGA TOUR schedule. And you’ll find few who’ve shown more consistency here than Bradley. He’s appeared at this event each year since 2013, making the cut a perfect 10 times with four top-11 finishes over that stretch. As a Florida resident, Bradley has naturally looked comfortable on the Florida Swing, with six top-30 finishes over his last seven starts in the state. His consistent ball striking and history in these conditions make for a high floor and solid placement consideration this week.
I’m not going to stand here and pretend I’m not terrified of Luke List’s putting prospects this week, considering he has now gone 18 consecutive events since he last gained on the greens. He lost more than seven strokes putting in his latest start. He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. Be that as it may, the putter has not stopped him from posting three top-30 finishes over his last five starts.
In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, List gained a career-best 11.4 strokes on Approach. To put that into perspective, that’s better than Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have ever recorded in an individual tournament. List ranks top-20 in many of the key categories for the demanding test in store at Bay Hill, including Driving Distance, SG: OTT, Prox 200+ and Par-4: 450-500.
I don’t think he can make enough putts to contend. But, with three top-20 finishes over five career Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances, he can still be an active contributor in DraftKings lineups.
As the elevated events have proven thus far in 2023, these loaded fields do not bode well for the outright prospects of longshots. However, Taylor Pendrith is a much more talented player than the gaudy odds would suggest. Elite drivers can separate themselves from the field on Bay Hill, as players like Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy have proven in recent years. Pendrith is one of eight players in the field to rank top 15 in both Driving Distance and SG: OTT. That combination served him fairly well in his 2022 debut where he finished T42. Since, he’s picked up some additional confidence and experience on long, difficult courses, playing in his first Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow.
In just his second year on TOUR, Pendrith has already accumulated 13 top-25 finishes, which span across comp courses like PGA National, Winged Foot and Torrey Pines. Having missed only one cut over the last calendar year, Pendrith will be on my outright card and a core DFS play for me this week.
Hoffman will assuredly not find himself on my outright card this week. But, the combination of trending tee-to-green play and elite course history make him a very appealing salary saver option on DraftKings this week. I’m going all in on the course horses this week, especially those at a discount. Hoffman’s four top-15 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the last five years are especially notable.
He’s now gained 2+ strokes from tee-to-green in three consecutive events, and is only one start removed from a T14 finish in his latest elevated event appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. That may not sound like much, but for this price, that combination of tee-to-green consistency and course history prowess make a great formula for a top-40 push.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
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